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Expert: China's Leverage Over Trump Stronger Than Ever Amid US Concessions
- •China's position in negotiations with the US is stronger due to its dominance in supply chains and market access, according to Anushka Saxena.
- •Trump's foreign policy missteps have led to significant US concessions, including reduced tariffs, weakened support for Taiwan, and eased export controls on AI and semiconductors.
- •American concessions are institutional and lasting, while any Chinese concessions are temporary and easily reversible, Saxena notes.
- •Trump has made institutional concessions in exchange for token symbolism and minor Chinese steps, weakening American power.
- •Despite internal contradictions in China's economy and military leadership, Trump has not yet capitalized on these potential levers.
Key Questions Answered
Trump has withdrawn most tariffs on China, reduced fentanyl tariffs to 10 per cent, resumed sales of H200 chips, and announced the sale of 200 Boeing aircraft. Additionally, his administration has watered down support for Taiwan, paused arms sales, and nearly ended export controls targeting China's AI and semiconductor development.
China's economy has been trapped in a deflationary spiral characterized by weak domestic consumption, poor consumer sentiment, and a distressed real estate sector. Furthermore, non-stop purges of top commanders have hollowed out the Chinese military leadership, disrupting modernization efforts, jointness, and combat preparedness.
Experts note that China's position is stronger than ever due to its dominance over critical supply chains and vast market access. While Trump has made institutional and lasting concessions in exchange for temporary and reversible Chinese steps, the US remains dependent on partners to reduce its reliance on Chinese rare earths without a short-term solution.
