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El Niño Threatens India's Post-Monsoon Rainfall After 13% Deficit
M
Moneycontrol•01-10-2026, 16:24
El Niño Threatens India's Post-Monsoon Rainfall After 13% Deficit
- •India concluded its 2026 southwest monsoon with a 13% rainfall deficit, receiving 759.4 mm against a normal of 868.6 mm.
- •Strengthening El Niño conditions are raising concerns for below-normal rainfall across most of India during the October-December post-monsoon season, as forecast by the IMD.
- •The Pacific Ocean's warming and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are key climate patterns influencing this outlook, with a neutral IOD offering no additional rainfall support.
- •El Niño, characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, can alter atmospheric circulation and typically weakens Indian monsoons.
- •Despite the overall drier outlook, parts of northwest India, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Karnataka may experience normal or above-normal rainfall.
Key Questions Answered
India ended its 2026 southwest monsoon with a rainfall deficit of nearly 13%, receiving around 759.4 mm of rainfall against the normal 868.6 mm.
Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and parts of Karnataka are expected to receive normal rainfall during the northeast monsoon season.
The India Meteorological Department expects neutral IOD conditions to continue through the post-monsoon season, meaning the Indian Ocean may not provide additional rainfall support.
