Stories
El Nino to Turn Violent: Major Threat to India by 2026-27, Forecast Warns
- •According to the IRI at Columbia University, El Nino could reach a 'very strong' level by late 2026 and early 2027.
- •The Nino 3.4 index reached +3.0 degrees Celsius by mid-September 2026, indicating a strengthening El Nino.
- •Twenty-two climate models tested by IRI predict a very strong El Nino in the winter of 2026-27.
- •For India, El Nino is mainly linked to the monsoon, potentially impacting agriculture, reservoirs, and power generation.
- •The Indian monsoon is influenced by factors beyond the Nino 3.4 index, including IOD and regional sea temperatures.
Key Questions Answered
The primary indicator used to measure El Nino's strength is the Nino 3.4 index, which tracks sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), this index reached +3.0 degrees Celsius by mid-September 2026, up from +2.52 degrees in August, indicating a rapidly strengthening El Nino.
El Nino events are often associated with reduced rainfall in India, which can place heavy pressure on agriculture, water reservoirs, drinking water supplies, and power generation, particularly in rain-fed agricultural regions. Reduced rainfall and dry conditions can severely affect Kharif crop yields, threatening rural economies.
Climate models indicate a 100% chance of El Nino conditions persisting from September 2026 through February 2027, with the probability slightly decreasing to 99% in March-May 2027, 90% in April-June, and 61% in May-July 2027. While it may begin to weaken by mid-2027, its broader environmental and climate impacts are expected to continue for some time.
