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Forget the Thucydides Trap: China is no Athens, America no Sparta
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Firstpost•29-09-2026, 10:49
Forget the Thucydides Trap: China is no Athens, America no Sparta
- •The article challenges the popular application of the Thucydides Trap analogy to US-China relations, arguing that neither China nor the US fits the roles of Athens or Sparta.
- •It highlights that Athens was a sea power and democratic, while Sparta was authoritarian; in contrast, the US is a sea power and democratic, while China is a continental power and authoritarian, resembling Sparta.
- •The US maintains technological, military, and economic superiority, a global alliance architecture, and the dollar's dominance, making its decline unlikely.
- •China's industrial overcapacity and over-exporting, coupled with tariffs from the US and Europe, could lead to economic stagnation and unemployment.
- •The article suggests China's strategy aligns more with Sun Tzu's philosophy of subduing the enemy without fighting, but the US under Trump is not falling for it, and China may be a 'peaking power' rather than a rising one.
Key Questions Answered
The Thucydides Trap is a political theory popularized by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison, based on ancient Greek historian Thucydides, which suggests that war becomes increasingly likely when a rising power threatens to displace an established ruling power.
Scholars like Hal Brands and Michael Beckley argue that China is a peaking power because it has accumulated capabilities while simultaneously confronting severe demographic, economic, and geopolitical constraints that could make its future window of opportunity close.
Despite decades of predictions regarding de-dollarisation, the US dollar still constituted 57.13 percent of allocated global foreign-exchange reserves in the first quarter of 2026.
