Stories
El Nino to Turn 'Very Strong' by Late 2026, Posing Elevated Risk for India
- •The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) forecasts El Nino to become "very strong" in late 2026 and early 2027, raising climate risk concerns for India.
- •The Nino 3.4 index, a key gauge of Pacific Ocean temperatures, reached +3.0 degrees Celsius in mid-September, indicating strengthening conditions.
- •All 22 models surveyed by IRI predict "very strong" El Nino conditions through the 2026-27 winter, with a 100% probability through February 2027.
- •The IRI also expects a strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) from September to December 2026, which can sometimes offset El Nino's effects on India.
- •El Nino typically brings weaker monsoon rainfall and can impact crop output in India, though the combined influence of IOD and other factors determines the overall impact.
Key Questions Answered
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society stated that the El Nino weather pattern is strengthening and will likely become "very strong" through the 2026-27 winter. The institute estimated a 100% probability of El Nino persisting through February 2027, with the event potentially ranking among the strongest on record.
The Nino 3.4 index, which serves as a key gauge of Pacific Ocean temperatures, reached +3.0 degrees Celsius in mid-September. All 22 models surveyed by the IRI forecasted "very strong" El Nino conditions through the upcoming winter.
The IRI expects the Indian Ocean Dipole to become strongly positive from September through December 2026 before returning to neutral conditions in early 2027. While El Nino is typically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and crop stress in India, a positive IOD can sometimes offset those effects.
