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India's Driest Monsoon in a Decade: Threatens Crops, Prices, and Rural Spending
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CNBC TV18•01-10-2026, 16:36
India's Driest Monsoon in a Decade: Threatens Crops, Prices, and Rural Spending
- •India faces its driest monsoon in a decade, with a 12.6% rainfall deficit during June-September, impacting winter crop prospects and raising concerns about food inflation and rural demand.
- •The southwest monsoon delivered only 759.4 mm of rain against a long-period average of 868.6 mm, making 2026 the driest since 2016, with significant regional disparities.
- •The dry monsoon's economic consequences include reduced farming incomes, lower rural spending, decreased hydropower generation, and increased electricity demand.
- •A weak monsoon has led to lower reservoir levels, increasing pressure on irrigation for the Rabi season, with below-normal rainfall forecast for October.
- •India's electricity deficit surged in September due to depleted hydropower reservoirs and increased demand for cooling, with hydropower generation falling nearly 16% from a year earlier.
Key Questions Answered
India experienced a 12.6% rainfall deficit during the June-September southwest monsoon, delivering 759.4 millimeters of rain against a long-period average of 868.6 mm. This made 2026 the driest monsoon season since 2016.
Hydropower generation fell nearly 16% year-on-year in September, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline. Meanwhile, hotter conditions drove up air-conditioning demand, pushing the electricity deficit for September to its highest level in nearly a decade.
The India Meteorological Department forecasts normal rainfall for South Peninsular India during the October-December northeast monsoon season, with precipitation expected to reach 88% to 112% of the long-period average.
