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RBI Stance Shift Likely in October, Rate Hike in December: Valtrust's Rahul Bhutoria
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Moneycontrol•27-09-2026, 07:05
RBI Stance Shift Likely in October, Rate Hike in December: Valtrust's Rahul Bhutoria
- •Rahul Bhutoria of Valtrust anticipates an RBI policy stance change in October and a 25 bps rate hike, likely in December, pending clarity on food prices and monsoon.
- •An October rate hike is also possible if the Indian rupee experiences significant weakening.
- •Bhutoria has moderately reduced full-year earnings estimates, expecting Nifty earnings growth at the lower end of projections.
- •He notes stress building in the economy and markets due to elevated oil prices, impacting India's import bill, current account deficit, and the rupee.
- •The market has not fully priced in sustained high oil prices, which poses a significant risk, and the ongoing US Fed hiking cycle keeps the dollar firm, challenging emerging markets.
Key Questions Answered
Valtrust expects the RBI to shift its policy stance in October and deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike most likely in December, once there is greater clarity on food prices and the monsoon, or sooner if the rupee weakens sharply.
With Brent crude above $100 a barrel, India's import bill, current account deficit, and the rupee all come under pressure. Elevated fuel costs also push up freight, fertilizer, and input costs, which feed into inflation with a lag.
Distribution platforms such as PB Fintech are hardest hit, with brokerages estimating a 10 to 12 percent earnings hit for every 10 percent cut in commissions, alongside bancassurance-led private life insurers.
