Stories
JPMorgan Sees Higher BOK Rate Hikes Amidst Semiconductor Boom
M
Moneycontrol•21-09-2026, 08:20
JPMorgan Sees Higher BOK Rate Hikes Amidst Semiconductor Boom
- •JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasts the Bank of Korea's benchmark rate to reach 3.75% in the current tightening cycle, exceeding the 3.5% consensus.
- •The Wall Street lender anticipates rate hikes in November, February, and May, driven by semiconductor-fueled growth and potential inflation.
- •JPMorgan economist Seok Gil Park highlights the challenge for the BOK as the chip boom impacts Asia's fourth-largest economy, with uncertainty on its broader economic filter.
- •Park projects South Korea's economy to expand 3.8% this year and 3.3% next year, surpassing the BOK's forecasts.
- •The BOK may adopt a more hawkish tone in its October policy statement, emphasizing upside risks to growth due to oil prices, Federal Reserve policy, and economic activity.
Key Questions Answered
JPMorgan expects the Bank of Korea to raise its benchmark rate to 3.75% in the current tightening cycle, with upside risk if semiconductor-driven growth stokes stronger inflation and financial markets remain stable.
JPMorgan expects South Korea's economy to expand 3.8% this year and 3.3% next year, which is higher than the Bank of Korea's forecasts of 3.3% and 2.9%, respectively.
The Bank of Korea delivered consecutive quarter-point rate hikes in July and August, bringing the benchmark policy rate to 3.00% amid persistent inflation and financial stability risks.
