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RBI Working Paper Reconstructs Missing State-Level Inflation Data for Covid Months
M
Moneycontrol•09-10-2026, 19:25
RBI Working Paper Reconstructs Missing State-Level Inflation Data for Covid Months
- •An RBI working paper proposes a method to reconstruct missing state-level retail inflation data for April and May 2020 using household inflation expectations and available CPI data.
- •The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation could not compile state-wise inflation figures for these months due to pandemic-related disruptions and insufficient price quotations.
- •The aggregated state-wise urban inflation estimates closely matched the official all-India CPI inflation series for the corresponding periods in 2020 and 2021.
- •The survey-based forecasting method achieved directional matches of around 65 percent in the post-Covid period, outperforming the RBI's Survey of Professional Forecasters in that specific metric.
- •The study emphasizes how data gaps during disruptions complicate regional price assessments while offering a viable estimation model for missing figures.
Key Questions Answered
The authors used the RBI's Inflation Expectations Survey of Households along with available consumer price index data to estimate missing state-wise figures for April and May 2020 and 2021.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation could not compile state-level figures during those months because of insufficient price quotations caused by pandemic-related restrictions.
The survey-based method achieved directional matches of around 65 percent, outperforming the RBI’s Survey of Professional Forecasters which recorded roughly 39 percent, though it performed less favorably on other error measures.
