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Ed Yardeni: US Economy Resilient, 6% 10-Year Yield is Tipping Point
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CNBC TV18•05-10-2026, 08:56
Ed Yardeni: US Economy Resilient, 6% 10-Year Yield is Tipping Point
- •Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, believes the US economy remains resilient despite weaker payrolls, with productivity gains helping companies.
- •He expects interest rates to be "normal for longer" as the economy shows strong growth.
- •Yardeni sees a 6% yield on the US 10-year Treasury as the level that could begin to hurt economic growth, but current yields are not a major threat to equities.
- •For emerging markets like India, higher global rates and the unwinding of the yen carry trade could lead to capital withdrawals.
- •The US labor market is performing well with a shortage of workers, driving companies to increase productivity, leading to strong GDP growth.
Key Questions Answered
Ed Yardeni identifies 6% on the US 10-year Treasury yield as the critical tipping point that could begin to adversely impact economic growth, though current levels are not yet seen as a major threat to equities.
He notes that the US economy is experiencing robust growth with real GDP expanding around 3.5% and productivity gains helping companies cope with ongoing worker shortages, meaning current rates reflect a normal, booming market rather than an abnormal penalty.
Higher global interest rates and the unwinding of the yen carry trade could potentially trigger capital withdrawals from emerging markets such as India as hedge funds reverse their low-interest borrowings.
