Stories
Silver Set to Shift from Deficit to Surplus by 2027 as Prices Consolidate
- •Silver is projected to move from a multi-year supply deficit to a potential surplus by 2027 due to falling industrial and solar demand.
- •Prices experienced extreme volatility, surging to a record high of $121 an ounce in January 2026 before correcting sharply to current levels around $60 to $61 an ounce.
- •The global silver deficit narrowed significantly from 237 million ounces in 2022 to an expected 46 million ounces this year.
- •Demand has pulled back notably, including a nearly 30% drop in Chinese solar applications and manufacturers adopting thrifty alternatives to cut costs.
- •Major brokerages such as UBS, Commerzbank, and JPMorgan expect silver prices to consolidate rather than revisit recent record highs in 2027.
Key Questions Answered
The transition to a surplus by 2027 is driven by a significant demand pullback, notably a nearly 30 percent decline in solar applications in China and a broader decrease in industrial fabrication. Additionally, supply availability is increasing through expanding mine output and record London Metal Exchange inventories.
International silver surged from $30 an ounce on January 1, 2025, to an all-time high of $121 an ounce in January 2026. By June 2026, prices corrected by nearly 65% to $57 an ounce, and are currently trading between $60 and $61 an ounce.
Major brokerages expect silver to consolidate rather than revisit triple-digit highs in 2027. UBS projects prices at $80 an ounce, Commerzbank targets $95 an ounce, JPMorgan expects current levels to serve as the yearly average, and Citi, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC forecast a range between $65 and $75 an ounce.
