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India Faces Potential 2-Million-Tonne Sugar Gap as Imports Loom
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CNBC TV18•06-10-2026, 10:28
India Faces Potential 2-Million-Tonne Sugar Gap as Imports Loom
- •India could face a sugar deficit of around 2 million tonne, according to Kapil Nema of Dalmia Bharat Sugar.
- •Indian sugar inventories are expected to settle at 5 to 5.5 million tonne, with current stocks at 3.6 million tonne as of October 1.
- •Recent adverse weather conditions in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka have raised concerns over cane crops and output.
- •Global sugar prices have turned bullish due to expectations of lower production in Brazil.
- •Ethanol diversion of sugar remains on hold until there is greater clarity on the size of the domestic crop.
Key Questions Answered
According to Kapil Nema, India could face a sugar shortfall of approximately 2 million tonnes, with domestic inventories settling around 5 to 5.5 million tonnes and current stocks at 36 lakh tonnes.
Recent rains in Uttar Pradesh have raised concerns and could reduce the state's sugar output by 100,000 to 200,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, Maharashtra and Karnataka experienced weak rainfall, particularly in August, though some precipitation arrived in September.
No sugar diversion is expected in the first ethanol tender cycle until there is clarity on the Indian crop size. However, if the crop turns out comfortable, the government might allow B-heavy molasses diversion in subsequent cycles.
