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News18 UP Survey Reveals BJP Dominance Through Voter Retention And Non-Voters
- •The News18 UP Mega Survey shows the BJP-led NDA leading with 66.6% current voting preference compared to 26.4% for the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance.
- •The BJP maintains a strong 91.2% voter retention rate from the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election, while SP-Congress retains 85.3% of its voters.
- •Direct switching favors the opposition slightly, with more previous BJP voters moving to SP-Congress than vice versa, though raw sample base differences alter the impact.
- •The BJP gains a major advantage among previous non-voters from the 2022 election, with 58% of this group currently favoring the ruling alliance.
Key Questions Answered
According to the News18 UP Mega Survey, current voting preferences show the BJP-led NDA leading at 66.6%, followed by the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance at 26.4%, and the Bahujan Samaj Party at 5.4%.
The BJP-led NDA retains about 91.2% of its 2022 assembly voters, while the SP-Congress alliance retains 85.3%. Although a higher estimated absolute number of voters switch from BJP to SP-Congress than vice versa, the BJP maintains a vastly larger total support base and attracts 58% of previous non-voters.
The survey was carried out in association with Pvalue Analytics and included a total of 30,925 respondents spread across all 75 districts of Uttar Pradesh to evaluate public perceptions of governance and leadership ahead of upcoming elections.
