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Goldman Sachs Warns Brent Crude Could Hit $60 or $125 by 2027
- •Global crude oil prices could drop to the $60-per-barrel range in 2027 if Persian Gulf production recovers faster than anticipated.
- •Conversely, ongoing geopolitical tensions and severe supply disruptions could drive Brent crude prices up to $125 per barrel.
- •Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90 per barrel while maintaining its average 2027 forecast at $80 per barrel.
- •The geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices currently remains slightly above $20 per barrel due to continuous market uncertainty.
- •Low oil inventories and persistent supply concerns continue to keep crude prices elevated despite recovering export levels.
Key Questions Answered
Global crude oil prices could slide into the $60-per-barrel range in 2027 if average oil production in the Persian Gulf rises by 1 million barrels per day above February 2026 levels. This faster recovery in Middle Eastern output and a quicker erosion of the risk premium are identified as the primary triggers for this price downside.
Despite the potential for a price correction in 2027, Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90 per barrel. This is an increase from its earlier estimate of $85 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs estimates that Brent crude could drop to the $60s if Gulf production increases by 1 million barrels per day above February 2026 levels. Conversely, if Gulf output stays 5 million barrels per day below those levels due to prolonged disruptions, prices could surge to an average of around $125 per barrel.
