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US EIA Raises Q4 Brent Crude Forecast to 105 Dollars Amid West Asia Supply Risks
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Firstpost•07-10-2026, 15:46
US EIA Raises Q4 Brent Crude Forecast to 105 Dollars Amid West Asia Supply Risks
- •The US Energy Information Administration raised its fourth-quarter Brent crude price forecast to an average of 105 dollars per barrel, up 14 dollars from its previous outlook.
- •The upward revision is driven by ongoing risks to West Asia oil supplies, constrained regional oil flows, and tightness in global diesel markets.
- •US retail gasoline prices reached 4.35 dollars per gallon in September, while diesel prices climbed to 6.29 dollars per gallon.
- •The EIA forecasts that the oil market will ease in 2027, with Brent crude averaging 84 dollars per barrel.
- •US East Coast distillate inventories remained severely depressed, sitting 32 percent below their five-year seasonal average in September.
Key Questions Answered
The US Energy Information Administration has raised its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent crude oil forecast to an average of $105 per barrel, representing a $14 increase from its previous monthly outlook due to West Asia supply risks and tight global diesel markets.
Upward price pressure is driven by constrained oil flows from West Asia, attacks on energy infrastructure such as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, and tight diesel markets with refiners increasing processing to meet strong demand.
The EIA expects the oil market to ease next year, with Brent crude forecast to average $84 per barrel in 2027. Additionally, US diesel prices are projected to average around $4.50 per gallon and gasoline prices just below $3.60 per gallon in 2027.
