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India's Russian Oil Supply Tightens Amid Reduced Exports, Strong Chinese Demand
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CNBC TV18•28-09-2026, 16:09
India's Russian Oil Supply Tightens Amid Reduced Exports, Strong Chinese Demand
- •Indian refiners anticipate a further tightening of Russian oil supplies in October and November due to reduced exports and increased competition from China.
- •India, the top buyer of seaborne Russian Urals crude since 2022, faces stiff competition as China ramps up purchases due to tightening Middle East supplies.
- •Russian oil arrivals to India are projected to fall to around 1.75 million barrels per day in September, the lowest since April, according to Kpler.
- •Overall Russian export availability has contracted, particularly from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, where drone attacks have halved shipments.
- •Indian refiners are seeking pricier alternatives like UAE Murban, Iraqi Basrah, and Angolan cargoes, while China benefits from the secure Arctic Northern Sea Route for Russian crude.
Key Questions Answered
Indian refiners expect supplies to tighten due to reduced overall exports from Russia and stiff competition from China, which has ramped up purchases and is willing to pay firmer prices in advance.
Overall Russian export availability has contracted, notably from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, where shipments have fallen by roughly half because drone attacks repeatedly suspended loadings.
Indian refiners have turned to pricier replacement barrels, seeking UAE Murban as a close substitute for Russia's Urals grade, alongside purchasing Iraqi Basrah and Angolan cargoes.
