Stories
Trump's China Deals: Buying Time, Not Restraint Amidst Rising Tensions
- •A China Coast Guard cutter rammed a Philippine vessel in Manila's exclusive economic zone, raising concerns for Washington under the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty.
- •Despite Trump's deal-making approach with Xi Jinping, China's conduct in the South China Sea and Strait of Hormuz remains unchanged.
- •Concessions made by Trump, such as pausing a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan and approving Nvidia chip sales, have not yielded reciprocal restraint from Beijing.
- •China continues to supply dual-use goods to Russia and Iran, while resisting US pressure to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- •Upcoming deadlines for rare-earth controls and the timing of Chinese purchases suggest Beijing holds significant leverage over Trump's political narrative ahead of the midterms.
Key Questions Answered
A China Coast Guard cutter rammed the Philippine fisheries vessel BRP Datu Magat Salamat 54 nautical miles off Palawan inside Manila’s exclusive economic zone, bending its railings and covering its deck in debris while it was carrying fuel to Filipino fishermen.
Under the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty, American officials have repeatedly stated that armed attacks on Philippine public vessels or the coast guard invoke US defence commitments. However, following the September 18 ramming, the official US condemnation was limited to a Facebook post by the ambassador in Manila six days prior to Donald Trump welcoming Xi Jinping to the White House.
In December 2025, Trump approved sales of Nvidia's H200 chips allowing about ten Chinese firms like Alibaba and Tencent to hold licenses for up to 75,000 units each. However, none have taken delivery because American rules mandate the chips be used inside China, whereas Beijing requires its companies to use Nvidia hardware only in overseas operations, effectively cancelling out both sets of rules.
