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RBI Rate Hike Expected as Inflation and Oil Prices Rise
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Forbes India•06-10-2026, 15:20
RBI Rate Hike Expected as Inflation and Oil Prices Rise
- •The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee is set to announce its October policy decision, with a Reuters poll showing 35 out of 61 economists expect a 25-basis-point rate hike.
- •The repo rate has remained at 5.25 percent for the past four meetings, and any increase would mark the RBI's first rate hike since February 2023.
- •Consumer Price Index inflation rose to 4.82 percent in August, staying above the RBI's 4 percent target for three consecutive months.
- •Brent crude prices have surpassed 100 dollars a barrel and the rupee remains under pressure, prompting expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Key Questions Answered
A Reuters poll of 61 economists indicated that 35 expect the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee to announce a 25-basis-point repo rate hike, which would mark the first rate increase since February 2023.
The RBI lowered its FY27 Consumer Price Index inflation forecast to 5 percent from 5.1 percent, while simultaneously raising its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.7 percent from 6.6 percent.
Consumer Price Index inflation rose to 4.82 percent in August, staying above the 4 percent target for three consecutive months, while Brent crude surpassed $100 a barrel and the rupee faced ongoing pressure.
