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Commodities Face Diverging Risks: Inflation, Payrolls, and Hormuz Diplomacy Loom
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Moneycontrol•27-09-2026, 22:52
Commodities Face Diverging Risks: Inflation, Payrolls, and Hormuz Diplomacy Loom
- •Markets closed a volatile week with resilient US data and hawkish FOMC commentary strengthening the case for further Fed tightening, while the Iran conflict kept crude and metals moving sharply.
- •The dollar reached a two-month high of 101.4 and Treasury yields repriced sharply higher, with the 10-year reaching 5.23 percent, as firm US activity data reinforced tightening expectations.
- •Spot gold closed below $4,300 per ounce and silver fell 3 percent, as elevated energy prices, persistent inflation concerns, and resilient US data reinforced expectations for further tightening.
- •Oil posted a modest weekly gain of about 0.4 percent, with Brent easing to around $104.5 per barrel as mid-week West Asia tensions gave way to diplomatic headlines regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
- •Next week's calendar is dense with Core PCE data for August and non-farm payrolls, which will test whether this week's hawkish repricing holds up against key economic metrics.
Key Questions Answered
Resilient US economic data and hawkish FOMC commentary reinforced expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, pushing the US dollar to a two-month high of 101.4 and sending Treasury yields sharply higher.
Brent crude spiked above $108 after Saudi Arabia intercepted six Houthi ballistic missiles targeting Taif and Yanbu, but prices later retreated below $105 following reports that US and Iranian negotiators in New York were exploring a phased framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Copper supply risks intensified after a fatal accident prompted BHP to suspend operations at Chile's Escondida mine on September 23.
