Stories
9/11's Legacy: How War on Terror Reshaped Central Asia's Geopolitics
- •Twenty-five years after 9/11, Central Asia is a global focal point due to critical minerals, trade routes like the Middle Corridor, and its strategic position bordering China, Russia, and the Middle East.
- •Joseph Epstein explains that 9/11 shifted US engagement from narrow bilateral ties, primarily with Kazakhstan, to a region-wide operational purpose focused on Afghanistan, lasting two decades.
- •Today's competition in Central Asia stems from Russia's war in Ukraine and the region's growing value, featuring the Middle Corridor and critical minerals, rather than the War on Terror directly creating a new 'Great Game'.
- •Central Asian states have accepted the Taliban's return, focusing on economic engagement and preventing ideological spillover, with resilience varying across countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.
- •China has emerged as the dominant economic partner in Central Asia, surpassing Russia in trade and investment, while the region actively seeks diverse partnerships to avoid over-reliance on any single power.
Key Questions Answered
Before 9/11, US engagement in Central Asia was narrow and mostly focused on Kazakhstan's energy and nuclear non-proliferation. The war in Afghanistan transformed this into a region-wide relationship with a shared operational purpose. Central Asian states like Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan opened military facilities, such as Karshi-Khanabad and Manas, to help manage spillover risks from their southern flank, establishing a US presence that lasted for twenty years.
The Middle Corridor has become highly valuable because it is the only serious east-west trade route that completely avoids both Russia and Iran. Both China and the West are eager to build out this corridor because alternative trade routes have increasingly become less reliable.
China has overtaken Russia as Central Asia's largest foreign investor and dominant economic partner. This shift is reflected in their trade figures: China's trade with Central Asia reached approximately $106 billion in 2025, whereas Russia's trade with the region stood at about $45 billion in 2024.
