Stories
Can China Win a War? RAND Report Analyzes PLA's Weaknesses and 'Peace Disease'
- •Despite possessing modern weapons and fifth-generation fighter jets, China faces a significant challenge known as 'Peace Disease', a term for the mindset and training weaknesses arising from decades without actual warfare.
- •A 2015 RAND report citing PLA's own officers revealed that many Chinese military exercises were unrealistic, scripted, and lacked the unpredictability and risks of a real battlefield.
- •The PLA suffers from the 'Five Incapables', highlighting inadequacies among commanders in assessing situations, making timely decisions, and handling unexpected developments.
- •Chinese President Xi Jinping and military strategists have publicly emphasized the urgent need to eradicate 'Peace Disease' and improve realistic combat readiness.
- •While China has intensified realistic joint exercises and difficult terrain drills in the past decade, the ultimate test of its true military capability remains untested without real combat experience.
Key Questions Answered
In Chinese military terminology, 'Peace Disease' describes the mindset, training culture, and institutional weakness that develop when an army remains away from actual warfare for decades without experiencing real combat challenges, concealing mistakes, and avoiding uncertain battlefield conditions.
China last fought a large-scale war in 1979 against Vietnam. Because of this long period without major combat, a large generation of soldiers, pilots, naval officers, and senior commanders in today's PLA have never faced the chaos, confusion, fear, and uncertainty of an actual war in their careers.
The 'Five Incapables' refer to major inadequacies of PLA commanders, including accurately assessing situations, understanding leadership intentions, making timely decisions, deploying troops effectively, and dealing with unexpected situations. These flaws connect directly to 'Peace Disease' because unrealistic training leaves commanders unprepared for decision-making under wartime uncertainty.
