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Paytm Stock Surges 32 Percent In 2026 As Nomura Predicts Further 31 Percent Upside
- •Nomura has initiated coverage on One 97 Communications, the parent company of Paytm, with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs 2,250 per share.
- •The brokerage forecasts Paytm's EBITDA to grow at a massive 96 percent CAGR between FY26 and FY29, driven by core payments and merchant lending.
- •Increased AI adoption, disciplined marketing, and operating efficiencies are expected to create a leaner cost structure for the fintech company.
- •Potential introduction of merchant discount rates on select UPI transactions and international expansion present additional growth opportunities.
- •Key risks highlighted by Nomura include potential deterioration in lending asset quality and intensifying market competition.
Key Questions Answered
Nomura initiated coverage on One 97 Communications, the parent company of Paytm, with a 'Buy' rating and a target price of Rs 2,250 per share. This represents a 31.4 percent upside potential from Wednesday's closing price.
Nomura expects Paytm's EBITDA to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 96 percent between FY26 and FY29. The revenue growth is projected to be driven primarily by core payments and merchant lending operations, alongside a leaner cost structure supported by artificial intelligence and economies of scale.
The proposed framework sets a 0.4 percent MDR on person-to-merchant UPI transactions exceeding Rs 2,000, with charges capped at Rs 300 for amounts of Rs 75,000 or more. Merchants will bear these fees, while essential services face a flat Rs 5 charge and capital markets a 0.02 percent MDR.
