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Oil Could Hit $140 by February and $500 by 2030 Amid Severe Supply Shortfalls
M
Moneycontrol•19-10-2026, 10:19
Oil Could Hit $140 by February and $500 by 2030 Amid Severe Supply Shortfalls
- •Currency Research Associates predicts that oil prices at $95 a barrel are cheap and could surge to $140 by February 2027 and reach $500 by 2030.
- •The forecast highlights that 1.675 billion barrels were not delivered following the Iran war, leading to a massive global supply shortfall.
- •Replenishing depleted national reserves will require millions of barrels of additional daily supply, driving up demand while global production faces structural constraints.
- •Production in major nations like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the US has peaked or entered permanent decline, limiting the scope for rapid recovery.
- •Veteran strategist Ulf Lindahl notes that the gold-to-oil ratio points toward oil climbing significantly in the near term as freight and security expenses remain high.
Key Questions Answered
Currency Research Associates estimates that oil prices could reach $500 a barrel by 2030, driven by severe supply disruptions from the Iran war, depleted stockpiles, and a difficult global production recovery.
According to Currency Research Associates, an estimated 1.675 billion barrels of oil were not delivered over a 26-week period following the outbreak of the war.
The supply shortfall is driven by the Iran war, with Iranian oil off the market, alongside peaked production in Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the US. Additionally, fragile flows through the Strait of Hormuz and restocking demand as countries rebuild reserves further constrain supplies.
