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Oil, Bond Yields to Keep Markets Volatile, But Recovery Possible: Samco MF CIO
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Moneycontrol•30-09-2026, 06:48
Oil, Bond Yields to Keep Markets Volatile, But Recovery Possible: Samco MF CIO
- •Umeshkumar Mehta, CIO at Samco Mutual Fund, believes India's domestic growth drivers remain strong despite external headwinds like oil prices and bond yields.
- •Mehta expects continued market volatility but does not see external factors preventing a recovery.
- •He anticipates the RBI will maintain a cautious approach at its October policy meeting, with a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike.
- •Weather-related disruptions could elevate food inflation short-term, but Mehta views it as volatility rather than a sustained trend.
- •Mehta maintains a constructive bias towards domestic themes, emphasizing strong balance sheets and earnings visibility within India.
Key Questions Answered
Umeshkumar Mehta expects the central bank to adopt a cautious approach ahead of its October policy meeting, noting a 50 percent chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike followed by close monitoring of incoming data.
Weather-related disruptions could keep food inflation elevated in the near term, but it should not be assumed as persistent. If weather conditions normalize and agricultural supplies improve, food inflation is expected to moderate.
Yes, to a large extent, as India's economy has become much more diversified with services, manufacturing, construction, financial services, and investment playing a larger role. Agricultural performance is now best viewed as one component of the broader growth story.
