Stories
Gold Jumps 60% in 1 Year: Will Prices Rise Further This Festive Season?
- •Gold prices have seen a massive jump of about 60% in the last one year, impacting festive season shopping.
- •Retail demand for gold has declined by 8 to 10 percent, contrasting with usual advance bookings for Dhanteras and Diwali in September.
- •24-carat pure gold, which was around ₹98,000 per 10 grams last year, has now exceeded ₹1.57 lakh per 10 grams.
- •According to Nirpendra Yadav of Bonanza Portfolio, if prices soften and stabilize by the festive season, stalled purchases could resume.
- •Surendra Mehta of IBJA notes that global tensions, particularly Russia-Iran and other geopolitical conflicts, have created confusion among buyers.
Key Questions Answered
Retail gold demand saw an 8 to 10 percent decline due to soaring prices—which surged about 60% in a year from around ₹98,000 to over ₹1.57 lakh per 10 grams—and deep buyer confusion caused by ongoing geopolitical conflicts like the Russia-Iran war. Customers are hesitant to make large purchases, fearing a sudden drop in prices if the war ends or global equations change.
High prices have completely shifted consumer patterns toward lighter jewelry, such as 18-carat and 14-carat hallmarked pieces, diamond-studded designs, gold ETFs, gold bars, and digital gold. To attract hesitant buyers, jewelers are offering heavy discounts on making charges, promotion schemes like 'new gold for old gold', and adopting a 'less grams, more value' approach.
Market experts estimate that gold prices this year will range between $4,200 and $4,700 per troy ounce, translating to roughly ₹1.48 lakh to ₹1.66 lakh per 10 grams, and could climb to $5,000 to $5,200 per ounce by the end of 2027. The long-term outlook remains strong due to continuous reserve purchases by central banks worldwide, as gold carries no counterparty or sanction risks.
