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RBI to Hike Rates by 50 BPS by December Amid Inflationary Pressures: Crisil Economist
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Moneycontrol•01-10-2026, 18:01
RBI to Hike Rates by 50 BPS by December Amid Inflationary Pressures: Crisil Economist
- •Crisil Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi predicts the RBI will raise the repo rate by another 50 basis points by December, with 25-basis-point hikes in October and December.
- •Renewed oil price shocks, elevated input costs, and monsoon-related risks are cited as key factors keeping inflationary pressures high.
- •Crisil has increased its Brent crude forecast for FY27 to $88-$93 a barrel, up from earlier estimates of $80-$87, due to geopolitical tensions.
- •Despite concerns over India's import bill and potential pressure on the current account deficit, Joshi sees room for the rupee to appreciate by year-end.
- •Joshi forecasts the rupee at Rs 93.50 to the dollar by March 2027, driven by expected increases in FDI inflows and a positive balance of payments.
Key Questions Answered
Crisil Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi expects the RBI to raise the repo rate by another 50 basis points by December, with 25-basis-point hikes anticipated in both October and December.
Renewed oil price shocks, elevated input costs, and monsoon-related risks are keeping inflationary pressures elevated.
Crisil forecasts the rupee to reach Rs 93.50 to the dollar by the end of March 2027, driven by expectations of stronger foreign direct investment inflows and lower repatriations.
