Stories
Oil Prices May Surge to $115 as Strait of Hormuz Flows Plummet
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CNBC TV18•13-10-2026, 15:36
Oil Prices May Surge to $115 as Strait of Hormuz Flows Plummet
- •Oil prices could trade between $95 and $115 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 due to escalating geopolitical tensions and elevated supply risks.
- •Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have drastically dropped from 17 million barrels per day to about 9.7 million barrels per day.
- •Increased shipping and insurance costs, coupled with maritime security threats, are adding upward pressure on global crude prices.
- •Proposed releases of Russian diesel and G7 stockpiles could temporarily ease the current global diesel shortage by about 50 percent.
- •Depleted fuel inventories and approaching winter demand could leave the oil market highly vulnerable to further supply shocks.
Key Questions Answered
Oil prices could trade between $95 and $115 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 as shipping costs, geopolitical tensions, and insurance premiums keep supply risks elevated.
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped significantly to approximately 9.7 million barrels per day, down from a baseline of 17 million barrels per day.
The proposed release of Russian diesel into international and US markets, alongside G7 and EU stock releases, could help reduce the global diesel deficit by approximately 50%.
