Stories
Renewed Fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray: A Looming Regional War?
- •Fresh fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray region shatters a four-year peace, raising fears of a wider conflict.
- •Tigrayan forces seized three airports and clashed with federal troops, with fighting spreading to Afar and Amhara regions.
- •The conflict represents the most serious escalation since the 2020-2022 Tigray war, which caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and famine-like conditions.
- •The Pretoria Agreement, which ended the previous war, is under threat due to unresolved disputes and new alliances among armed groups.
- •The regional context, including conflicts in Sudan and tensions with Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan, could escalate the Tigray conflict into a broader Horn of Africa war.
Key Questions Answered
The renewed fighting erupted when Tigrayan forces seized control of three federal airports and clashed with government troops. Ethiopian officials characterized the move as an all-out offensive by the TPLF, while Tigrayan leaders claimed they were acting defensively against an intensification of federal government attacks.
The recent violence directly threatens the Pretoria Agreement signed in November 2022, which was brokered by the African Union to end the devastating two-year Tigray war. However, that peace settlement never fully resolved the underlying political, territorial, and security disputes between federal authorities and the TPLF.
The TPLF joined six other Ethiopian armed groups to form the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, with the stated objective of challenging and overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. This coalition includes groups like the Amhara Fano National Movement that previously fought on opposite sides during the 2020-2022 civil war.
