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Election Gambling Surges Ahead of US Midterms Amid Integrity Concerns
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Firstpost•14-10-2026, 19:03
Election Gambling Surges Ahead of US Midterms Amid Integrity Concerns
- •Trading on political outcomes has surged on prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi ahead of the US midterm elections.
- •Data from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective shows over 21000 prediction markets are related to the 2026 US congressional midterms, with traders betting over 220 million dollars.
- •Unlike the 2024 cycle where most bets focused on race winners, 2026 markets feature more detailed wagers on winning margins and specific individual races.
- •A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll reveals that 60 per cent of respondents oppose betting on election outcomes, with strong opposition from both Republicans and Democrats.
- •Public advocacy groups and analysts have raised concerns that election prediction markets could introduce disruptive financial technology into the democratic process and erode public trust.
Key Questions Answered
Traders have bet over $220 million across three markets in the 2026 cycle so far, compared with $92 million during the entire 2024 cycle.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on October 12, 2026, discovered that 60 per cent of respondents did not support betting on election outcomes, with opposition reaching 61 per cent among Republicans and nearly 70 per cent among Democrats.
Trading activity is primarily led by the Texas Senate contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton for an open seat.
