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RBI Expected to Deliver 25-Bps Rate Hike Amid Rising Inflation Risks
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CNBC TV18•06-10-2026, 13:05
RBI Expected to Deliver 25-Bps Rate Hike Amid Rising Inflation Risks
- •The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points at its upcoming monetary policy meeting.
- •Economists from S&P Global Ratings and CRISIL anticipate a calibrated and shallow tightening cycle rather than aggressive rate hikes.
- •Key factors driving the policy outlook include surging global oil prices, an uneven monsoon, and stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth.
- •The narrowing interest-rate differential between India and the US is also expected to influence the central bank's decisions.
- •Markets will closely monitor changes to RBI's growth and inflation forecasts, along with assessments on food and input-cost pressures.
Key Questions Answered
The Reserve Bank of India is likely to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points at its October 7 monetary policy meeting.
Dharmakirti Joshi highlighted that the monsoon has turned deficient and uneven across states, the West Asia crisis has intensified, and oil prices have remained elevated.
Paul Gruenwald pointed to elevated US fiscal deficits, higher inflation following the oil shock, and strong long-term borrowing demand from hyperscalers building data centres as drivers of rising US bond yields.
