Stories
Russia Slashes 2026 Gas Output, Export Forecasts as Europe Shifts Away
F
Firstpost•23-09-2026, 17:28
Russia Slashes 2026 Gas Output, Export Forecasts as Europe Shifts Away
- •Russia has significantly cut its natural gas production and export forecasts for 2026, reflecting the ongoing impact of the Ukraine war and Europe's move to end Russian gas purchases.
- •The revised forecast projects 683.1 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas production this year, a 5.3 bcm reduction from May's projection, though still above 2025 levels.
- •Seaborne liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are now expected to reach 35 million metric tonnes in 2026, a 5.3 million tonne decrease from earlier estimates, indicating a slower expansion of Russia's LNG industry.
- •Russia's pipeline gas exports to Europe plummeted by 44% last year to 18 bcm, the lowest since the mid-1970s, a stark contrast to the 180 bcm annually before the war.
- •Moscow is increasingly relying on LNG and non-European buyers to offset the loss of its dominant European market, as the EU prepares to eliminate remaining Russian gas purchases.
Key Questions Answered
Russia is expected to produce 683.1 billion cubic metres of natural gas in 2026, which is down 5.3 bcm from the May projection but still higher than the 662.7 bcm produced in 2025.
Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe fell by 44 percent last year to just 18 bcm following the closure of the Ukrainian transit route, dropping from a peak of around 180 bcm annually in 2018-2019.
Seaborne liquefied natural gas exports are expected to reach 35 million metric tonnes in 2026, up from 30.3 million tonnes last year, though this latest estimate is 5.3 million tonnes lower than the government's previous forecast.
