Stories
India Rice Exports Projected to Drop in 2027 Amid El Nino and Rising Prices
- •India's rice exports are expected to fall 4 percent to 24 million tonnes in 2027 due to El Nino, shrinking paddy acreage, and rising domestic prices.
- •The USDA attributes the projected decline to lower shipments of broken and white rice alongside reduced exportable supplies.
- •Paddy cultivation area fell 3.7 percent to 42.92 million hectares in the current kharif season, led by declines in states like Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.
- •Prices of premium non-basmati rice varieties such as Sona Masoori, Ponni, and Swarna have risen by 10 to 25 percent.
- •Despite supply pressures and shipment challenges, India's rice export earnings grew 2.17 percent to 4.81 billion dollars during April-August of the 2026-27 financial year.
Key Questions Answered
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects India's rice exports to fall by 4 per cent to 24 million tonnes in 2027 due to lower shipments of broken and white rice, rising prices, and reduced exportable supplies.
A strong El Nino weather pattern is expected to disrupt monsoon rainfall and drop India's rice production by 4.5 per cent to 147 million tonnes in the 2026-27 crop year. Additionally, the area under paddy cultivation fell 3.7 per cent to 42.92 million hectares in the current kharif season, with notable declines in states like Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.
Government rice stocks stood at more than 38 million tonnes against a buffer requirement of 10.25 million tonnes, providing substantial reserves to ease domestic supply pressure. The government plans to release rice under the open market sale scheme to curb rising prices.
