Stories
Oil Prices Face Upside Risks Amid Deepening Global Supply Disruptions: Morgan Stanley
N
News18•20-09-2026, 16:00
Oil Prices Face Upside Risks Amid Deepening Global Supply Disruptions: Morgan Stanley
- •Morgan Stanley warns of further upside risks to oil prices due to geopolitical disruptions, constrained shipping, reduced refining capacity, and declining inventories.
- •The firm maintains its average Brent crude forecast at USD 100 per barrel for Q4 2026 but notes prices could move higher at times, with risks already skewing upwards.
- •Current disruptions include constrained exports via the Strait of Hormuz, reduced flows through Bab el-Mandeb, and the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline.
- •Disruptions also stem from the Panama Canal, low Rhine water levels affecting refined-product shipments, and tight tanker availability driving freight rates to record highs.
- •Market buffers like high US exports and ample inventories are weakening, with strategic reserves nearing completion, commercial inventories declining, and US exports reversing.
Key Questions Answered
Morgan Stanley retained its average Brent crude forecast at USD 100 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026 and projects an average of USD 95 per barrel for the first quarter of 2027.
The oil markets are experiencing simultaneous disruptions, including constrained exports through the Strait of Hormuz, reduced flows through the Bab el-Mandeb, and the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline.
Morgan Stanley estimates that the global oil market will remain in deficit through the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.
