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India's GDP Forecast Holds at 7% Amid Global Uncertainty: Arvind Virmani
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News18•03-10-2026, 20:30
India's GDP Forecast Holds at 7% Amid Global Uncertainty: Arvind Virmani
- •NITI Aayog Member Arvind Virmani maintains his 7% GDP growth forecast for India this year, acknowledging a wide range of uncertainty.
- •Virmani previously raised his forecast from 6.5% to 7% and expanded the uncertainty range to "7% plus or minus 1%".
- •He emphasizes that uncertainty is a fundamental aspect of macroeconomic conditions and must be incorporated into economic projections.
- •Virmani cautions against revising full-year growth forecasts based solely on quarterly data, despite India's 7.8% growth in Q1 FY27.
- •Regarding UPI, Virmani suggests transitioning from initial subsidies to a cost-based system, noting that economists generally favor direct transfers over product-based subsidies.
Key Questions Answered
NITI Aayog Member Arvind Virmani has retained his full-year GDP growth forecast for India at 7 percent, with an uncertainty range of plus or minus 1 percent.
Virmani cautioned against revising full-year growth forecasts solely based on quarterly GDP data because macroeconomic conditions involve an inherent range of uncertainty.
Virmani stated that the initial subsidy successfully promoted UPI as a public good, but the policy now needs to transition toward a cost-based system.
